Podcast: The Myth of the Early Application “Bump” & Law School Rolling Admissions

In this brief episode of Status Check with Spivey, Mike discusses what has grown in recent years to be the biggest myth in law school admissions today.

Mike mentions two previous Status Check episodes in this podcast:

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, YouTube, and Google Podcasts.

Welcome to Status Check with Spivey, where we talk about life, law school, law school admissions, a little bit of everything. Today is going to be law school admissions: the single [biggest] current—because they change over time—law school admissions myth, right? So it used to be that schools averaged the LSAT; after they stopped, it took about three or four years to debunk that myth. And the new big one—it is just, like, a perpendicular line. Five years ago, six years ago, yeah, people's natural instincts were if you apply a little earlier, it may or may not benefit you. And now there's been this seismic shift, not for everyone for the record, but it's hard to dispel the seismic shift of, “I heard a law school say,” or “I heard someone say, you better apply by September or October, and you get a bump if you do.”

Let me tell you why I think that myth sticks around. Someone rightfully asked about it on Reddit—“What evidence you have that this is untrue?” We have a lot of evidence, hence the podcast. But let me first talk about why I think this myth is hard to debunk.

Number one, a few schools do say it. I love the analogy—and I hate that I use it; many of my closest friends are in law schools—but I would never buy a car from someone and believe everything they said, or a house from an owner and believe everything they said. So yes, schools like early data, they want you to apply to the school. A few schools may very well say, “Yeah, if you apply early, you get a bump.” Doesn't really play out like that. I'm going to get into it. Most schools, incidentally, don't say that. All schools that I’ve talked to offline, not publicly, tell me, “No, we don't give people an early bump. We look for good candidates.” So that's number one.

Number two is this sort of, like, correlation/causation thing. Your friends are already going to register “applying early must be good,” and then when you see the people who applied early get admitted early, not everyone, but you're seeing the happy results—you’re more likely to post your admits than your denials—and the person that then gets admitted in September or October with a 176 and a 3.9 and a good application, is going to get admitted in December with a 176 and a 3.9 and a good application. And get the same scholarship amount of money. I'm going to guess 80%, roughly, of admits last year happened in the second part of the year, so in 2023. What does that mean this year? If it's just a slow of a cycle, and it looks like it's going to be slow, 80% of the admits are going to happen in 2024.

There's a third reason why this myth is hard to debunk. People think of “rolling admission” as “your file is read in the order it was sent into the law school and completed.” For a few schools that's true. Obviously, your application has to be complete or doesn't get read. But most schools sort by strength of completed application. And this is how you see it play out. June was a sad month on Reddit. A lot of people that say, “I applied in September, October, and I still haven't heard from my schools,” they're not going to get read—every year you see this—“I applied in September, October, and I haven't heard, and it’s May, June, July.” And then sadly, what you see in August is, you see a lot of denials go out, even after the cycle is complete. Did those people get a bump for applying in September? No, they get the harshest eight/nine months of their life, waiting for their denial.

Which leads me to the point of this podcast, the deleterious nature of this myth is, you don't want to rush your application because someone online said, “Apply in September or October.” You want to follow the advice of the vast majority of Deans of Admission. You want to follow the realization that correlation is not causation. Again, there's a lot of people that apply in September and October that haven't even posted their results. The people that were admitted in September, yeah, they didn't need to retake the LSAT, their GPA was set. They worked on their applications all summer long.

To really bring up that point—if you're ready to go, if you take in the LSAT your max times or got your score that you're super happy with, and you got your application completely polished and done, rock it! Submit it. It doesn't hurt to apply early. (I don't want to bring up the one counter cycle we saw where actually it was beneficial to apply late because admissions officers misjudged the data. That's one year out of 24 years.) So, it doesn't hurt to apply early, don't get me wrong. There's just no mythical boost. If I were a Dean of Admission and I was looking at an application, I would much rather have someone have worked as a server or customer service and developed the wherewithal—they know how to deal with angry people—that to me would be a much bigger boost than someone applying September 1. Because that person that’s applying September 1, if they don't have the work experience, or the LSAT at my median or above my median, or the GPA at my median or above my median, I’m going to hold on to their file and do nothing. And that poor applicant is going to sit around and get more and more anxious.

And let me tell you the other flip side of is. When the stakes seem important—not just for law school applicants; I’ve seen Deans of Law Schools have meltdowns over college presidencies they were looking for. Dr. Judson Brewer talked about—this world-famous author who runs one of the research clinics at Brown—wrote the book Unwinding Anxiety; I recommend it. So as you get more anxious in the admission cycle because there's more uncertainty because you haven’t heard from schools, the part of your brain that doesn't have the impulse regulation hooked to it is more likely to do things. So let's say you apply in September and you don't hear in January, February, March, and a lot of people are posting online. This is going to happen to a lot of people listening to this. You're more apt to do something like call the law school once a week and say, “Hey, can I get a status update?” They're going to give you an update when you get it. I actually saw a post on Reddit about this. The heuristic is, call the law school if it's going to add value to your application or the application process. “Hey, I have an update, I visited the campus and loved it. I always knew Princeton Law was at the top of my list, but now it's number one.” That's a value-added phone call or email. But, “Hey, can you give me an update on my status?” They're going to give it to you when you do, and you're more likely to make those sort of spirals of anxiety if you've been waiting a long time.

So let me talk about the evidence. This is like what, year 24/25 for me? Rolling admissions 25 years ago was much more rolling based on date stamps. So I wouldn't have been doing this podcast 25 years ago. Now, rolling admissions is much more based on strength of application. So if you look at the data—and you can look at law school data, self-reported; we have tons of internal data that we just mined as a firm, and it's really fascinating to look at some of the stuff. It's our intellectual property, and we may put some of these things out there, like all the softs that go into it, what schools like “why” in the personal statement, more than others, all kinds of things. So when you look at the data, and you can control for the fact that the LSAT scores and the GPAs early submission tend to be a little higher, or you take out that pool and you look at the people with the lower scores who apply in September or in October, there's no bump. I'm not talking about early decision where you're bound; I'm talking about applying as early as you can as an arbitrary race. Don't do it. If you can take the LSAT again or make your application better, just like Dean Z said on one of my recent podcasts with her, just so many of my friends in admissions—Dean Z said January, but I'll say any time before November is super early. November to January, you’re still in the thick of well-timed applications. Most admits are going to be made in January onward. I would say, not even for admit purposes but for scholarship purposes, you kind of want to ideally have your application in sometime in January. So that gives you a timeline. This is Mike Spivey of the Spivey Consulting Group.

Latest Podcasts

August 12, 2025

UVA Law Admissions Dean Natalie Blazer on the 2025-26 Cycle, Rising LSATs/GPAs, the "Why UVA" & More

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Anna Hicks-Jaco interviews Natalie Blazer, Assistant Dean for Admissions and Chief Admissions Officer at the University of Virginia School of Law, on the upcoming 2025-2026 admissions cycle, how applicants should be thinking about and taking into account relevant current events, and advice for prospective law students preparing to submit their applications. They discuss predictions for the 2025-26 cycle (1:56), rising LSAT and GPA medians (20:22, 27:45), changes they've made to their application this year (12:30), the new student loan cap (30:26), how admissions offices are considering applicants writing about politics and protest in the current political climate (4:18), how they evaluate applicants who have been unable to get a job after graduating from college (7:36), whether writing about AI is overdone (36:34), advice for the "Why UVA" essay (13:05), and much more. As a brief disclaimer, Dean Blazer speaks for herself and often for UVA Law in this episode; her opinions do not reflect those of all admissions officers.

In addition to her work at UVA Law, Natalie has served as Director of J.D. Admissions at Georgetown University Law Center and was Associate Director of Admissions at Columbia Law School. She hosts the UVA Law podcast Admissible, which "offers insights into the world of law school admissions and a behind-the-scenes look at life as a law student through interviews with students, faculty, alumni and staff."

We've interviewed Natalie twice for Status Check before, and though we weren't able to get to all of the questions that Redditors requested we ask, we answered many of them in these past episodes:

Please note: At the time that we recorded this episode, we noted that August 2025 LSAT registrants were up 27% relative to August 2024 registrants but that that number would come down over the days of the test administration. Ultimately, August LSAT registrants landed at a 23.7% increase vs. last year.

You can listen and subscribe to Status Check with Spivey on ⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠. You can read a full transcript of this episode with timestamps below.

August 4, 2025

Bill Treanor on 30+ Years as a Law School Dean & Standing Up to Interim U.S. Attorney Ed Martin

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Mike interviews William ("Bill") Treanor on his long and recently-concluded tenure as Dean of Georgetown University Law Center as well as his experiences and perspectives from a 40-year career. Bill talks about the the biggest changes he's seen during his time in legal education (16:06), the coming changes he foresees in the short-term future both good (19:22) and bad (20:56), his proudest accomplishments as a law school dean (41:57), the biggest challenges law students face today (24:27), and how he reacted and famously responded to the letter from Interim U.S. Attorney Ed Martin threatening not to hire Georgetown Law graduates if the school was found to be teaching a curriculum involving diversity, equity, and inclusion (1:33).

Dean Treanor's response to then-Interim U.S. Attorney Ed Martin is below. You can also read it in full here.

Header: Georgetown Law, William M. Treanor, Dean and Executive Vice President, Paul Regis Dean Leadership Chair, March 6, 2025, Addressed to: Edward R. Martin, Jr., Interim United States Attorney, District of Columbia Judiciary Center, 555 4th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001. Contents of Letter: Dear Interim United States Attorney Martin: I write in response to your letter dated February 17, 2025, which you sent to me via email on March 3, 2025. As a Catholic and Jesuit institution, Georgetown University was founded on the principle that serious and sustained discourse among people of different faiths, cultures, and beliefs promotes intellectual, ethical, and spiritual understanding. For us at Georgetown, this principle is a moral and educational imperative. It is a principle that defines our mission as a Catholic and Jesuit institution. Georgetown University also prohibits discrimination and harassment in its programs and activities and takes seriously its obligations to comply with all federal and local laws. Your letter challenges Georgetown’s ability to define our mission as an educational institution. It inquires about Georgetown Law’s curriculum and classroom teaching, asks whether diversity, equity, and inclusion is part of the curriculum, and asserts that your office will not hire individuals from schools where you find the curriculum “unacceptable.” The First Amendment, however, guarantees that the government cannot direct what Georgetown and its faculty teach and how to teach it. The Supreme Court has continually affirmed that among the freedoms central to a university’s First Amendment rights are its abilities to determine, on academic grounds, who may teach, what to teach, and how to teach it. Georgetown University Law Center 600 New Jersey Avenue, NW | Washington, DC 20001-2075 This is a bedrock principle of constitutional law – recognized not only by the courts, but by the administration in which you serve. The Department of Education confirmed last week that it cannot restrict First Amendment rights and that it is statutorily prohibited from “exercising control over the content of school curricula.” Your letter informs me that your office will deny our students and graduates government employment opportunities until you, as Interim United States Attorney for the District of Columbia, approve of our curriculum. Given the First Amendment’s protection of a university’s freedom to determine its own curriculum and how to deliver it, the constitutional violation behind this threat is clear, as is the attack on the University’s mission as a Jesuit and Catholic institution. Georgetown Law has one of the preeminent faculties in the country, fostering groundbreaking scholarship, educating students in a wide variety of perspectives, and thriving on the robust exchange of ideas. Georgetown Law faculty have educated world leaders, members of Congress, and Justice Department officials, from diverse backgrounds and perspectives. We pride ourselves on providing an excellent graduate and professional education, built upon the Catholic and Jesuit tradition. Georgetown-educated attorneys have, for decades, served this country capably and selflessly in offices such as yours, and we have confidence that tradition will continue. We look forward to your confirming that any Georgetown-affiliated candidates for employment with your office will receive full and fair consideration. Sincerely, [Signature] William M. Treanor Dean and Executive Vice President Paul Regis Dean Leadership Chair 2

Other topics they discuss include the value (and lack of value) of the Socratic method (16:30), experiential learning in law school (16:06) and the potential effects of a current proposal before the ABA (20:56), the growing field of law and technology (19:22), the prospect of government taking accrediting authority from independent organizations (21:57), the current and coming impacts of AI on legal education and practice (23:43, 46:58), how law firms have learned from past recessions and overreactions (29:33), Bill's take on the current surge in law school applicants (30:36), his advice for prospective law students today (33:48), and his thoughts on the law school rankings (35:18).

Bill Treanor served as Dean of Georgetown University Law Center for 15 years, prior to which he served as Dean of Fordham University School of Law for almost 20 years. His accomplishments at Georgetown were innumerable—you can read more about him and his impressive career here.

Letters of Recommendation

Admissions

July 14, 2025

Podcast: Military Applicants—Law School Admissions Strategy & More with Harvard Law Grad Brian Henson

In this episode of Status Check with Spivey, Spivey J.D. admissions consultants Danielle Early (former Associate Director of Admissions at Harvard Law School and military/veteran admissions specialist) and Mike Burns (former Director of Admissions & Financial Aid at Northwestern Law and Navy veteran) interview Brian Henson, a former consulting client of Danielle's, Navy Intelligence Officer, ⁠Service to School⁠ mentor, Harvard Law Armed Forces Association president, and recent HLS graduate. They discuss Brian's story of applying to law school from the middle of the ocean on an aircraft carrier and his experiences as a veteran at HLS, plus insights into admissions and legal education specifically targeted at military veterans and those on active duty.

What considerations should military applicants keep in mind that differ from non-military applicants? What is the adjustment like moving from the military to law school? What sorts of admissions resources are available for military members and veterans? What are common pieces of misinformation that military applicants may encounter, and what's the true story? They cover these topics and more, including admissions for enlisted soldiers vs. officers (29:36), getting letters of recommendation from supervisors/commanders (36:44), application timing (5:28 and 21:51), resumes (43:36), personal statements (46:08), determining your chances and making a school list (31:51), job search advice (1:03:42), and more.

Listen

Podcast: The Myth of the Early Application “Bump” & Law School Rolling Admissions

Latest Podcasts

Have questions? Get in touch with us

About

For Prospective Students

For Universities

Follow Us

Podcast: The Myth of the Early Application “Bump” & Law School Rolling Admissions

Podcast Transcript

Latest Podcasts

Have questions? Get in touch with us

Stay Updated!

About

For Prospective Students

For Universities

Follow Us